The impact of the current and new agricultural policy on the development of the major crops in Bulgaria

Abstract

The study aims to scrutinize the impact from introduction of the new agricultural policy after 2013 on five main crops in Bulgaria: wheat, barley, maize, sunflower and rapeseed. These five crops make up for 55% of the utilized agricultural land in Bulgaria and over 90% of the arable land. The basic methodology used in the analysis is the scenario approach, where based on the modeling is evaluated and compared the impact of the current and new policy on the area, production, the subsidy level, gross return, etc implications. The projection of the baseline indicators is stretched by 2017 and illustrates the state of these sectors under both policy scenarios. It is found out that the changes in the CAP will drive to more favorable effects on the productions apart from the analyzed five main ones and probably will contribute to a bigger diversification and shrug of the abandoned land along with minimal decrease in the five crops’ area.

Keywords: baseline projection, cereal, oilseed, model, indicators, development